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Prediction for CME (2024-10-09T02:12:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-10-09T02:12Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/33873/-1
CME Note: Bright fast halo CME associated with the X1.8 class flare from AR 3848 (N13W08) and a significant eruption marked by an EUV wave, a large area of deep dimming and bright post-eruptive arcades. Associated with this CME there was also a initially slowly developing eruption of a very large filament spanning from N20W15 to N15W55 to the northeast of the Active Region 3848 which started prior to the X flare (~2024-10-08T22:19Z).
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-10-10T14:46Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 8.67
Dst min. in nT: -335
Dst min. time: 2024-10-11T01:00Z

Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-10-10T14:06Z (-5.58h, +5.58h)
Prediction Method: ELEvo
Prediction Method Note:

CME input parameters:
Apex direction (deg): 8.0
Inverse ellipse aspect ratio: 0.7
Angular half width (in ecliptic, deg): 45.0

initial CME speed: 1509.0 (+/- 50) km/s
initial height: 21.5 R_sun
initial time: 2024-10-09T04:16Z
drag parameter: 0.1e-7 (+/- 0.025e-7) /km 
ambient solar wind speed: 400 (+/- 50) km/s
time step: 10 min
ensemble members: 50k

Lead Time: 22.78 hour(s)
Difference: 0.67 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Eva Weiler (ASWO) on 2024-10-09T15:59Z

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